This story originally appeared in GW Today.
As the 2024 election approaches, the vice-presidential debate on Oct. 1 between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) is expected to be a crucial event.
This debate, possibly the last live encounter between the two campaigns, provides an important opportunity for both candidates to showcase their differing views on the economy, healthcare and national security, and to garner support for their respective running mates leading up to the final stretch of the election.
Peter Loge, director of George Washington University’s School of Media and Public Affairs, discusses what’s at stake in this highly anticipated debate and how it may shape the trajectory of the campaigns leading up to November.
Tuesday’s debate, hosted by CBS News, will begin at 9 p.m. ET and last 90 minutes, including two commercial breaks. It will be moderated by CBS News anchor Norah O'Donnell and “Face the Nation” moderator Margaret Brennan.
Q: What unique challenges do you think both candidates face in this vice-presidential debate, given their different political backgrounds?
A: The bad news for Gov. Walz is that not a lot of voters know who he is. The bad news for Sen. Vance is that a lot of voters do. Walz needs to introduce himself to the voters and reinforce his image as a regular guy who understands the challenges a lot of families face. Vance, on the other hand, has to either counter his image as racist and extreme, or count on that image to help turn out the votes he and former President Trump need to get elected. Both candidates are both messengers and message—who they are and how they behave are examples of what each campaign stands for.
Q: How do you think Gov. Walz will navigate his relatively lesser-known national profile compared to Sen. Vance’s high visibility in Republican circles?
A: Walz’s relatively low profile plays to his advantage. He isn’t an undiscovered TikTok influencer; he’s your high school civics teacher who writes you a good recommendation for college even if you got a B in his class. He needs to seem normal and relatable. Vance’s visibility doesn’t help him. He was unpopular when he was picked, and things haven’t gotten any better. His best bet is to focus on Trump’s popular proposals and talk about the price of gas and groceries.
Q: What are the key policy areas you expect to dominate the debate, and how might each candidate’s platform resonate with swing voters?
A: Swing voters are looking for candidates who understand the challenges voters face and whose judgment voters can trust. Policy proposals are important, but most people don’t vote based on policy. Policies can be metaphors for how a candidate views the world, what problems candidates prioritize and how they would tackle problems. For example, eliminating taxes on overtime earnings as Trump has suggested would be disastrous for the federal deficit. But the point of the proposal isn’t its economic wisdom; the point is to say to people who get paid by the hour “I’ll help you, they are hurting you.” Similarly, Vice President Harris said she will bring back and sign the bipartisan immigration bill that Trump encouraged his supporters in Congress to kill. She can’t do that, only Congress can, and they’ve already rejected it. But the point of the argument is to tell voters that she will be tough on immigration and will work on bipartisan solutions while her opponents put scoring political points over policy solutions.
Q: In past debates, candidates often use the opportunity to attack their opponent’s running mate. How likely is it that Walz and Vance will focus on the shortcomings of Harris and Trump, respectively?
A: I expect voters will hear a lot about Project 2025 from Walz, and a lot about Biden-Harris (or Harris-Biden, if Vance is being very clever) economic and immigration policies. Walz will remind voters why Vance is unpopular, raising his statements on families and racist attacks on immigrants, for example. He may also bring up Vance’s past criticism of Trump to try to create division among Republicans. Walz may try to tie Trump to Vance rather than trying to tie Vance to Trump. For his part, I expect Vance to talk about inflation, immigration and chaos, and tie everything Biden to Harris. He will likely talk about the U.S.-Mexico border and put Harris at the center of the problem, and he will almost certainly talk about inflation.
Q: What are the potential risks of missteps for either candidate in this debate, and how might it affect their party’s broader strategy?
A: At this point both campaign strategies are pretty set. I’m not sure Walz can go too far off the rails; his risk may be being too boring or relying on a soundbite that sounds too scripted. Vance has a chance to be Trump but with message discipline. He will likely keep to the Trump script without any tangents that have become the hallmark of Trump speeches. His risk is contradicting Trump, which would lead to stories about Vance and Trump not being on the same page again, which then becomes its own problem. Vance might also find his extreme and racist rhetoric doesn’t play as well on a debate stage as it does at a rally.
Q: How important do you think the vice-presidential debate will be in shaping the media narrative around the candidates, particularly in the final weeks of the campaign?
A: The vice-presidential debate is a chance for soft supporters of Harris and Trump to feel better about their decisions. They will watch the debate for confirmation that they made the right choice in deciding who to support. The press will be looking for anything newsworthy, whether it’s there or not. “That was boring, here’s a clip” won’t be something viewers hear on Wednesday morning. Early voting has already started in some places. An especially good or bad night for a candidate could result in a surge of votes on Wednesday. Historically, candidates who do well in a debate see a bump in the polls that fades after a week or two and the campaign returns to normal before voting starts. In 2024, that bump could result in immediate votes.